When first starting out in internet marketing, you are unlikely to think too much about your return on investment (ROI). You might spend a bit of money on software, link building, and content creation, and just see how it goes. That’s certainly what I have been doing. I do not know the extent of my investment to date in my internet business, but I do know it far outweighs my earnings. For instance, I have purchased Market Samurai, and a month’s subscription to Unique Article Wizard (neither of these are affiliate links – why?), amongst many other things.
So before I start telling you about how important calculating a ROI is, and before I reveal the strategy upon which my company’s six-figure property purchases are based upon (which can apply directly to our online businesses), I better explain why I have not been bothered about my ROI to date.
Quite simply, I consider myself to have been in a ‘research and development stage’. I have viewed my ventures to date as a learning experience. You could consider the money I have spent as some kind of tuition fee. I am always harping on about “learning by doing”, and I am gladly the victim of my own teachings. The best way to learn is to do, and I have lived by that fact. You could say that my business isn’t yet really a ‘business’, as my primary concern hasn’t actually been making money – it’s been learning.
That is now changing. I feel like my continued education and making money can now start to walk hand in hand. As my first niche site begins to experience some success (sign up to my newsletter to get the latest news on Sunday!), I will now start to contemplate how I should invest my money in order to increase my earnings. And that is where I have to start considering my ROI as well as the margin of safety I wish to employ.
The Double Barrelled Margin Of Safety
In case you don’t know, I am the director of property management and development in my father’s business. I have been with the company for just over five years, and we currently have net assets worth comfortably in the eight figure range. We tend to ‘recycle’ (i.e. buy then sell) properties rather quickly. We aim to hold properties for no longer than a couple of years, and occasionally ‘flip’ properties within a matter of weeks.
As such, we are constantly buying new properties. With such a high turnover rate, we always need to make sure that our investments are conservatively priced. This is where our ‘double barrelled margin of safety comes in’. It is rather simple:
- Assume you will sell at a very low price
- Aim for a high return
This prices us out of the vast majority of properties on the market, but still allows us to make a healthy number of investments. With this strategy you have two levels of protection. First, if your projections are conservative, your sale prices should be much higher than anticipated. Second, because your projected return is so high, you will still make a good amount of money even if the investment doesn’t perform as you would like.
From Property Investment To Internet Marketing
This strategy can be employed in any line of business. I am now in a position where I can start to make predictions as to what kind of return my investments will produce. These predictions will be rough around the edges, possibly naive, and certainly based upon a low level of experience. As such, I need to make sure I am running with a double barrelled margin of safety in order to protect my investment as best as possible.
The earlier you start tracking and analysing your investments, the quicker you will gain a much better understanding of your business.
An Example
Take my niche site, Modeling For Kids, as an example. The numbers below are theoretical, but loosely based upon some calculations I have been doing recently.
I have a new keyword that I want to rank for. Having examined the competition, I feel very confident that I will be able to rank #1 with some dedicated keyword research. I think I can do this by investing in a two month subscription to Unique Article Wizard (not an affiliate link – why?). So, let’s conservatively assume that I will need a three month subscription, just to be sure. In addition to that, I am going to be spending an hour every day working on my backlinking strategy. Let’s say I value my time at $25 an hour. My total investment, after 3 months, will be $2,481.25 ($200 investment in UAW, and $2,281.25 in my hourly worth).
The keyword I aim to rank for produces 500 exact searches a day. I am basing my projections on exact searches only, which is conservative, as I should expect more than just the exact amount. The #1 spot on Google should bring around 40% of searches to my site. Therefore, I should get 200 new visitors a day, minimum. My site is currently monetized with AdSense, and my historical click through rate (CTR) is around 5% of unique visitors. Let’s assume the CTR is a little lower – 4%. That means I will get a projected 8 clicks a day.
Haven’t fallen asleep yet? Good! What’s next? Cost per click. AdWords tells me that the keyword costs $1.90 per click. Typically, it is said that Google pays out just 30% of the AdWords cost. In my experience, it is even a little lower than that, so let’s assume it is 20%. Therefore, every click will earn me 38 cents. And as such, my income per day is just over $3.
So now let’s put that all together. My initial investment is $2,481.25. Assuming I reach #1 in Google at the end of third month, my earnings in the first year will be $821.25. That is an annualised return on my investment of 33%. Not only is that above my desired annual return of 30%, the numbers I have used are conservative. I am planning for the worst, but can hope for much better.
So, as per my double barrelled margin of safety, I am assuming I will sell at a very low price (i.e. my income per click and traffic numbers are low), and I am aiming for a high return (33%).
You may be saying, yes, but it’s only $800 in a whole year, but remember – I valued my time at a relatively whopping $25 per hour. You can outsource such work for a damn sight less! If you outsource the vast majority of the work and do ten times as much, then your earnings are $8,000. And 100 times as much makes it $80,000. And don’t forget that the numbers are extremely conservative. The sky is the limit.
Don’t Forget That You’re Running A Business
As you may have gathered by now, I am taking this very seriously. And if you are on this blog, then you probably should be taking your online venture seriously too. As you likely know, Leaving Work Behind is about starting your own sustainable and scalable online business. Given that I am discussing my future livelihood, I’d be an idiot not to treat it like a business. Because whilst it may not be yet, it certainly will be.
So give some thought as to what you want your ROI to be. Consider how fat you would like your margin of safety. And once you have found an effective way of making money online, you’re on the way – just work out the numbers and scale up.
What are your thoughts on my approach to calculating my ROI? Do you do things differently? I’d love to know how you approach your business.
Photo courtesy of Ribbit
Owen @ Quitting The 9 To 5 says
Tom,
A great post!
In my day job (advertising) we talk about ROI all the time so it was interesting to see it applied to the world of I.M.
Your a bit ahead of me in progress with things so I will need to start thinking about this soon. Particuarly as I am thinking about getting UAW for myself. Good to know that you still think it is a useful tool.
I’ll be watching your updates to see the progress!
Owen
Tom Ewer says
Thanks for commenting Owen, and thanks for the retweet! I really appreciate it.
TheUglyKoala says
Excellent post Tom, best one yet or at least the one I’ve liked most:)
I know numbers turn some people off so maybe this idea would be too niche. But if you ever wanted to get more of a “hook” for your site. I’ve always thought there is room for a StatsBlogger.
I know loads of people mention spending too much time looking at Google Analytics. But they like me seem to have questions that you don’t find too much info on. Such as
-What’s a good bounce rate
-What’s a good email sign up rate
-How many visitors can you actually expect from a guest post(know you touched on this)
-How many visitors do comments typically bring.
There is some stuff for the really big sites. But it would be interesting to discover what is more typical for smaller sites.
It would be interesting to interview big blogs to see if they had noticed their stat percentages changing over time. Would also be interesting to see “crowd sourced round up” type posts of what small blogs are roughly getting for all these different stats.
You get people like Corbett Barr who have all these monthly traffic reports. I think it would be really interesting to convert those monthly numbers into charts (so even people who don’t like data can learn). So we could look at things like did their avg page views, time on site, etc etc change as they grew. We could then see if any factors particularly correlated to growth.
There’s quite a few people dotted about now who have monthly reports etc. It would be cool to collate them all together each month. And see if we can spot any trends (like Google+ growing as a traffic source etc)
Another thing;) Much like your analysis I think it would be fun to try and quantify much more blogging stuff. Like we take the average US/UK salary and break down, what it would actually mean to replicate that online. I.e. for adsense at 3% how many monthly views would actually be required. How do the numbers work for affiliate marketing, having your own product etc, based on industry conversion rate norms.
Any other “stats guys”? or am I just being a geek and writing a comment that is WAY too long:) Keep up the good work Tom.
Jim
P.s bit below the submit button is all HTML code stuff:)
Tom Ewer says
Wow Jim, you went to town with that comment didn’t you! I love it!
I am a complete stato myself, so what you’re proposing does sound interesting. However, it’s not where I see this blog going.
Maybe you are the man to bring your own thoughts to fruition? I would certainly read such a blog.
Cheers,
Tom
P.S. Thanks for the heads up – don’t you love it when a theme update screws with your blog?
Kelly says
Hey Tom – Great post! Glad you touched on your niche site here – now that I’ve been working more on my niche site, I’m starting to realize that exact match searches are pretty important 🙂 Back to the drawing board for me, but you can always say “I told you so” – because you certainly did!
I’m in the R&D phase too, and you’re right, you really can’t worry about money too much at this point. There’s a point where you spend more then you earn, and then a point where you can finally see some benefit.
I agree that doing an online venture is serious business, just as important as any other business and should be treated with the same kind of seriousness. I think your calculation of ROI is very sound, and it’s great you are erring on the conservative side.
Tom Ewer says
Hey Kelly, thanks for stopping by! I’m not going to say I told you so 🙂 going through the process was probably far more valuable than simply taking my advice at face value.
sudharana says
Great way to calculate ROI. Your responsibility does not end by mere giving your business an online face, but earning a considerable amount of ROI is necessary for its sustainable development.
Paul Hill says
The first £100 I made via affiliate marketing was a graet feeling but once I had ran the figures, it cost me almost £300 in software, hosting, imagery, advertising etc. to get there. I am getting more efficient all the time but that £300 was just the beginning. It made me believe that I might just be able to make this work. I am now at a stage were my online income always exceeds my outgoings so hopefully I will be able to “leave work behind” soon
By all means, speculate to accumulate but never forget that the goal is to make money. I spent my first 6 months in Internet Marketing speculating and although I had read about the mistakes of others, I still found myself walking the same line, sometimes I think there are certain lessons which you must learn on your own
Great post as always Tom!
Tom Ewer says
That’s fantastic news Paul! If your online income exceeds your outgoings, what are you waiting for?