I recently finished reading Jonathan Fields’ Uncertainty.
I actually purchased the book when it first came out (and when it seemed like every blogger on the planet was talking about it) but I didn’t get past the first chapter. It just didn’t grab me.
However, upon giving it a second go I discovered that it did contain some useful insights into one of the most pressing issues for those who are trying to leave work behind (clue: it’s in the title of the book). To be more specific, there was one small section of the book that made it worth the purchase price alone.
If you are mired by uncertainty and are in desperate search of a way to boost your confidence and reduce your fear of failure, Uncertainty may hold the key. In this post, I am going to explore what I consider to be its key lesson.
Going to Zero
While Fields spends a lot of time in the book addressing matters that are not directly related to uncertainty (which is rather unusual, given the name of the book), he really nails it towards the end when he talks about “Going to zero.”
I really advise that you grab a copy of the book yourself (if only to devour that section and commit it to memory), but I will attempt to paraphrase Fields’ concept here.
The notion is simple: if you can quantify your worst fear about any given endeavor — if you can name it and frame it — you can tame it.
Fields points out that we often exaggerate our greatest fear until it becomes a disproportionately huge monster. Before long, what was once the worst case scenario in our mind seems more like an inevitability, and you are paralyzed into complete inaction. This is what Fields calls “going to zero.”
Sound familiar?
The solution, as Fields presents it, comes packaged within the answer to three questions.
- What if I go to zero? I.e. what’s the absolute worst that can happen? Write it down; be realistic. Once you’re done, answer the other half of the question: how you will recover. Give equal attention to answering that part (and believe me — few things in life are too big to come back from).
- What if I do nothing? Answering this question may represent the most important step in the process of leaving work behind you will ever take. How so? As Fields puts it, “there is no sideways in life.” The concept is simple: if you are unhappy now, you will be more unhappy in the future. That unhappiness will only grow. You will not exist on the same plane of unhappiness. You cannot ignore the negativity in your life, unless you are happy for it to become a bigger force in the coming weeks, months and years.
- What if I succeed? Here’s where you fantasize about what could be. Lay it all out. If you have a very specific vision for your business, write it down. If you’re more driven by the outcome (e.g. what your daily routine looks like) then write that down.
Once you’re done answering these questions, Fields advises that you do three things:
- “Acknowledge the potential for pain created by the first scenario, but also the power of your recovery scenario and the potential for even greater creative space.”
- “…take the sideways storyline, drink it in, feel it viscerally, and understand its genuine impact on your life.”
- …take your success storyline. Add more detail. What does it feel like, sound like, taste like? What do you see?
Putting the possible outcomes of your future actions into perspective can make a world of difference to your uncertainty and fear of failure. What was once a blind fear of an unlikely potential outcome can be tamed by clearly defining possible outcomes and exploring how they might develop. I think the above exercise is invaluable for anyone mired by uncertainty.
Does This Work For You?
I wish I had this framework when I was in the process of quitting my job. Although I will always be uncertain when I push myself into new endeavors, I can’t imagine that I will ever experience the same weight of uncertainty (and potential consequence) as I did then.
And that leads me to one simple question for those of you who suffer from uncertainty: does the process work for you? Does it help you to wrest control over your uncertainty and feel more confident about what you do next? Does it release you from the paralysis of inaction and spur you into doing?
Let me know in the comments section below!
Photo Credit: nicubunu.photo
Justin says
Hey Tom,
Nice to see you back!
I like the concept of “going to zero”. It’s always helpful to me when staring down possible failure to think about that worst case scenario. I’m getting a bit older now and HAVE had some massive failures…so remembering that even at their worst they weren’t THAT bad is oddly comforting.
Tom Ewer says
Thanks Justin, it’s good to be back! I get what you’re saying and I guess that’s the point — even the worst case scenario isn’t going to ruin your life in the grand scheme of things.
Kent Faver says
Thanks for the review Tom! I follow Jonathan on Twitter and didn’t even realize he wrote this book. My wife and I often ask “what’s the worst thing that could happen” – so maybe we’re on to something.
Tom Ewer says
I think so Kent!
Casey says
Thanks for writing about this book, Tom! I’m going to have to pick it up. I will be the first to admit that I don’t like uncertainty, but as a full-time freelance writer (and as a parent!) I have to deal with it head-on. And the dealing with it head on is the part that I used to have trouble with.
Professional and personal experience have taught me that situations that look safe and predictable aren’t always–they just offer the illusion of security. The fact is that things happen, and we have to deal with them. The difference between relying on an employer and relying on myself is that I have to acknowledge the uncertainty that already exists about making a living, and take responsibility for coping with it.
And if I’m going to be responsible for managing the risk and uncertainty in my life anyway, I might as well live that life on my own terms as much as possible. That’s the pep talk I give myself when things look intimidating. And I like to remind myself that even if the worst case scenario does happen, I can probably write about it later!
So to answer your question, yes, my homemade version of Fields’ process is really helpful. I’m looking forward to reading what else he has to say about it!
Tom Ewer says
Hey Casey,
It sounds like you already have a lot of it worked out, which is great! Let me know what you think about the book when you’ve read it.
Cheers,
Tom
Emily Jane Bernstein fb-pianolady says
Reading your article was like…mmm…seeing my fears as a replay, and not being able to stop and replay……
I don’t know if that made sense to you! However, your article hit home with me, especially “going to zero”….wow! It spoke loud and clear and I have changed some very bad habits because of your article.
I am a writer, freelance, and I write for a lot of bloggers, besides my own blog at homebizmomma. I am constantly plagued with “what if”, have been all of my life. Well long story short, the “what if’s” have come and gone and I am still here, still writing and still blogging and nobody has strung me up …yet!!!
I always felt impending doom when writing for others’ and yet, I have never, I mean NEVER had a bad experience.
Your article has taught me that I am not alone, there are others out there that feel the same way I do, so I will trudge on, but to a little different beat from now on.
Thanks, I enjoyed the article immensely
Tom Ewer says
You’re welcome Emily! I know what you mean about the feeling of “impending doom” — I still have that to an extent (what if all my clients dumped me overnight?). Ultimately, you have to realize that the odds of the “impending doom” scenario are extremely long, and even if it did happen, you’d be able to recover from it.
scott says
Good Post Tom have you considered consulting ?
Tom Ewer says
Yep, but it doesn’t really fit in with my lifestyle at the moment (i.e. I don’t want to be tied down to fixed commitments).
Waseem rashid says
It’s time I met my fears head-on. Even if my worst fears are realized I think I’m enough of a man to bounce back.
Tom Ewer says
Of course you are, there’s no question about it!
Ned Christensen says
Tom,
Sound wisdom here that has been expressed by many in the change management arena, but can’t be reiterated too often. Thanks for sharing.
The “…no sideways…” observation is critical to evaluating any life situation, including employment, but also extending to other relationships and situations. You may be going sideways, but the rest of the world is always going forward and if you don’t break the inertia, you eventually end up kicked to the curb. But inertia is powerful and it’s easy to keep cashing those checks, even when the work environment is untenable.
Some inspirational supporting quotes compiled by Tom Peters are in this document, for anyone interested in further motivation. http://www.tompeters.com/blogs/main/PDFs/Quotes41_010306_3.pdf
Tom Ewer says
Some great quotes in there Ned, thanks!
Waseem rashid says
Tom,
It’s been less than a month since I stumbled across LWB, and I can already see a positive change in my outlook on life
Not afraid any more to jump in at the deep end!
Tom Ewer says
Glad to read it Waseem!
debashish says
I have wanted to read “Uncertainty”, but it just keeps getting pushed back on my reading list. Thanks for the summary, Tom.
I did not know that this idea was introduced by Jonathan Fields. I have been using this technique for the past one year and it has really worked for me. Now, instead of thinking I can’t do this, I have moved on to the mindset of what’s the worst that could happen if I did this?. I have learnt to apply this to all things in life, not just my efforts to leave work behind.
Tom Ewer says
Sounds like you’ve got a great attitude towards life Debashish!
Phil Maguire says
I hate to be bore but I found this article kind of lame.
Surely there are only 2 things that are uncertain about any decision:
1. How much time and resources it will take to actually complete it
2. Whether you will stay the course or give up
In essence, this system you describe is an exagerrated version of the Pros & Cons list. I gave up using something like that many years ago because I found people generally exagerrate the worst and diminish the best. There is no point asking them to do otherwise because that is how society has conditioned them from a very young age and it gives them a legitimate excuse to be a failure.
Also, that “How will you recover” advice smacks of giving people a Plan B that they can run to if it all goes wrong. Sun Tzu wrote that if you want to defeat an opponent, you must give them the illusion of an escape because then they will not give their all to the battle.
I would offer an alternative: the path of Kaizen. Reduce risk and uncertainty to almost nothing by making a simple and small change towards your goal. For example, when I chose to lose weight, I decided on the target of 1 pound per week which is nothing. However, over a year, that would work out as 52 pounds. I have to admit that my average weight loss over the last 2 years has only been 3/4 lb. As you might have guessed, I’m not too upset by that
I hope it helps you as much as it has helped me
Tom Ewer says
Hi Phil,
No problem — everyone’s entitled to their opinion here 🙂
I think uncertainty extends far beyond what you’ve mentioned as your “two things.” For example, what about uncertainty over the potential benefits of the outcome?
I find it curious that you think that outlining how one might recover feels like a Plan B. That hadn’t occurred to me for a moment — after all, if you’re throwing your all into something, Plan B is hardly likely to be a good thing (although it will serve to demonstrate that your world wouldn’t end). But in a way you are right — Plan B is exactly what you run to if it all goes wrong. That’s the whole point. Are you saying that one should have no contingency plan — that people should recklessly throw themselves into endeavors without considering how they might recover from a worst case scenario?
I agree with the Kaizen approach under many circumstances — especially weight loss (just check out healthyenough.net for confirmation of that). However, it isn’t always applicable. Tiny, incremental improvements are simply not sufficient when it comes to building an online business. It requires you to throw yourself into it fully. That’s why clearly defining the worst and best outcomes as well as a potential escape route can provide you with the necessary perspective to move forwards.
Cheers,
Tom
Phil Maguire says
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I shall try to be as thoughtful in return.
What about the uncertainty of potential benefits of the outcome? If the benefits you have received fall short of your target, then you have not completed the task so that’s point 1 on my list. If the potential benefits are greater (and they often are because people are too quick to diminish the best outcome), then that is a pleasant surprise and who doesn’t like pleasant surprises? I don’t know anyone who lies awake at night worrying about getting more than they aimed for. Let’s take a real example. Often I have been approached by people who believe that earning a million pounds will make them happy and I can guess pretty well who will find happiness and who will not because happiness is not to be found in a million pounds but in the person you become to earn it. Nonetheless, I tell them to go ahead in the hope that they will discover this along the way and find the happiness they seek. In every endeavour, the only thing that really matters is the character you build, everything else is a bonus.
That is the first time I have had someone call me reckless for suggesting the path of Kaizen. I have to withold judgement on recklessness. Some people consider me reckless whilst others I know consider me downright timid. They think me timid because I believe in diminishing the risk of failure down to the smallest amount without reducing the reward. So I wouldn’t play Russian Roulette to win a pound whereas one of my friends claims that he would (I don’t believe him, though). Others call me reckless because I would risk failure at all when I could sit alongside them in their comfort zones. However, I have seen many instances of what I would consider reckless behaviour has resulted in success. “Fortune favours the brave” is a cliche because there are so many ocassions when it has proven to be true
How many ocassions does it all go wrong? How often is something a complete failure? Is there ever an ocassion where something is a complete failure? If it is not, then the question is still “Do I stay the course or do I quit?”
I have tried contingency planning but I gave it up when I realised that I was spending an awful lot of my time planning for things that weren’t going to happen. If I was immortal, it might make an interesting diversion but as there is only 30,000 days in an average life, I decided I didn’t have the time to spend on fantasy problems when there were very real ones that needed attention.
Let’s talk worst case scenarios and Plan B. Let’s take one of my role models, William Wilberforce. In 1787, he became an abolitionist and sought the end of slavery. It took him 20 years to end the slave trade and another 26 years before all slaves in the British Empire were given their freedom. What was the worst case scenario in this case had he failed – that some people would have remained slaves? I don’t think so. I think it would have been continued slavery only ended by a bloody war like the American Civil war which resulted in 600,000 deaths. Now that is a worst case scenario. Did he have a plan B? Is this a little extreme? Let’s take a more trivial example, shall we. How about Edison and the light bulb. How many times did he fail? What about Walt Disney? What about Ray Kroc? What about Donald Trump who has been bankrupted four times?
Finally, I would have to disagree entirely with your stance that tiny, incremental improvements are simply not sufficient when it comes to building an online business. And I’m not the only one. The concept of the Minimum Viable Product is the very expression of small action to remove uncertainty. DropBox started as nothing but an email capturing landing page to gauge interest in the idea. Once they saw that people liked the idea, they developed a test purchase page to see how much people would pay for the service. Then they acted once the uncertainty was dealt with. And there not the only ones. The whole concept of The Lean StartUp is that you take small steps which remove uncertainty about whether the business will succeed or not.
Tom Ewer says
Hi Phil,
I’m not sure where you felt I was calling you reckless, but that was certainly not my intention. Nor was it my intention to describe Kaizen as “reckless” — it is, quite clearly, the opposite.
You seem to have made the assumption that I am failure averse, when that couldn’t be further from the truth. Anyone who reads more than a handful of LWB posts will come to know that.
Imagining failure at its worst isn’t about avoiding it — it’s about putting a name to it, making it real, so that you can deal with the possibility and thus feel freer to be decisive.
Finally, regarding the Lean Startup concept, and more specifically companies like Dropbox, I disagree with you 100%. Do you really think that if you asked the founder of Dropbox questions like “Did you ever feel like you were taking a risk?” and “Has your business always moved forwards in tiny incremental steps?”, that he would answer in support of your claims?
Furthermore, when it comes to founding businesses, you can reduce uncertainty, but you can never remove it entirely.
Cheers,
Tom